Predictive analysis
Slow-Onset Drought-Related Displacement Model
The SODRD model was developed in partnership with the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The slow-onset drought-related displacement (SODRD) model aims to explain the interdependencies between rainfall, livestock, land structure, population movements (with a focus on pastoralists) and socioeconomic parameters.
The model quantifies the relationship between rainfall and pasture which in turn impacts livestock. This can in turn impact the market prices for livestock and therefore the income of the pastoralist. This can lead to displacement. The model covers livelihood zones in Ethiopia and Somalia.
The model is accessible using software called Venzim, where the user can create a drought scenario to see how it could potentially create displacement, as well as how interventions such as fodder provision or cash assistance could mitigate this displacement. The model will soon be made available through an online user interface hosted on this site.
Funded by
The Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
