Global Displacement Forecast
The updated forecasts show that displacement is forecasted to increase by more than 6.2 million people by the end of 2024. This is 800,000 higher than that in the preliminary forecast issued in March 2023
More than 108 million people are now displaced worldwide. Between 2023-2024 a total increase of 6.2 million people displaced is expected. This does not include the 3.5 million people that have been displaced in Sudan since April. Beyond Sudan, massive displacement has already been witnessed in DR Congo, Somalia, Myanmar and Burkina Faso.
The data in the updated forecasts underscores that displacement is a multifaceted, global phenomenon, with fifteen countries on four different continents experiencing an increase of more than 100,000 displaced. The data also underscores that hosting countries for the displaced will primarily be fragile, low-income countries with poor humanitarian access that are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and more at risk of climate and hazard induced disasters. The earthquake in Turkey and Syria and Cyclone Mocha that impacted Myanmar and Bangladesh, have had severe repercussions, and have served to, once again, demonstrate that disasters disproportionately impact displaced and already vulnerable populations. Highlighting that disaster risk measures and strategies must be conceived of, implemented, and accounted for in a way that is responsive of the needs of displaced people.
A combination of humanitarian aid, development and peacebuilding are necessary
To reduce the increase in displaced people worldwide it’s necessary to look at the problems through a broader lens and stop moving from crisis to crisis without addressing the root causes. The evidence demonstrates that humanitarian assistance and peace interventions are necessary, but insufficient to address structural issues. A combination of the three pillars of humanitarian, development and peacebuilding are necessary to address and prevent displacement comprehensively for both the displaced as well as for the communities that host them. Unfortunately, 2022 saw a record low in the number of peace agreements reached – one-fourth of the number reached in 2018. And at the same time the humanitarian funding gap grew to an all-time high of $22 billion.
The forecasts are an update to the Global Displacement Forecast report launched in March 2023.