New Report: Displacement is going to increase by more than 6.8 million people in the coming two years
In a context of growing conflict, disregard for international humanitarian law (IHL) and diminishing funds to address the conflicts and their consequences, displacement crises are set to significantly increase.
Ilustration 1: Prompts - silhuettes, refugees fleeing wartorn city, infographic vector style, shades of crimson red, black and white
Posted on 13 Mar 2024
DRC’s new Global Displacement Forecast report ‘Foresight’ estimates that the total number of people displaced will increase by 3.7 million in 2024 and an additional 3.1 million in 2025 entailing a total increase of 6.8 million from an estimated 101 million in 2023.
The increase in displacement will be largely driven by the crises in Sudan, Myanmar and Burkina Faso. 4.2 of the 6.8 million people will likely be displaced in Sub-Sahara Africa, whileit is estimated that displacement in Europe and North America will see a much lower increase with 250,000 persons.
"We see the crises unfolding, and we are able to predict which ones are going to worsen significantly. What we need now is to act before the situation gets worse," says Nirvana Shawky, Executive Director - Partnerships, Advocacy and External Relations at Danish Refugee Council (DRC):
"With 'Foresight' we have the ability to pinpoint more precisely where more support is needed to prevent and intervene as early as possible. The numbers coming out of this report are very concerning. It’s a failure by everyone that we are seeing these numbers continuously on the rise."
We see the crises unfolding, and we are able to predict which ones are going to worsen significantly. What we need now is to act before the situation gets worse.
/ Nirvana Shawky, Executive Director - Partnerships, Advocacy and External Relations at Danish Refugee Council (DRC)
Displacement as a result of disregard of IHL
The report further shows how displacement is linked to disregard of International Humanitarian Law. When violence against civilians is rampant, the average increase in displacement is 6 times higher than when there are low levels of violence against civilians.
When hospitals are being attacked by armed actors or there is severe restraint for humanitarian actors, it increases the number of people that flee across borders.
The often blatant disregard of IHL that we are witnessing in many of the countries takes a heavy toll on displacement affected communities. States bear legal and moral responsibilities to protect civilians and civilian objects. We therefore call on all states to respect IHL and we urge governments to step up their efforts to ensure that IHL violations do not happen with impunity," says Nirvana Shawky.
On top of these challenges, the report shows how conflict resolution and official development assistance, especially towards peacebuilding can contribute to impact on displacement dynamics.
When there is limited development assistance and support for peacebuilding provided, displacement tends to increase by 134% on average, while when international actors engage, provide funding and support peace agreements then displacement on average is 31%.
About the report
The report builds on displacement forecasts made with the ‘Foresight model’ – an Artificial Intelligence model developed together with IBM to predict future forced displacement more accurately.
DRC uses the Foresight model to support country operations and the wider humanitarian system with more accurate forecasts for strategic planning for better prevention, response to and protection of displacement-affected populations.
A broader objective of this report is to show the opportunities for humanitarian actors to use AI and machine learning in their work.
In addition to the forecasts, the illustrations in this report have been generated using AI software.
