WACAFI displacement forecast snapshots
In response to existing multidimensional and ongoing crises in Sahel, DRC has developed a prediction tool to anticipate forced displacement in Liptako-Gourma: WACAFI (West Africa Context Analysis and Foresight Initiative).
Every 3 months, the WACAFI model forecasts the number of individuals forced into displacement in 15 regions of 3 countries of the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger).
A holistic approach using Foresight's methodology helped to build a machine learning model that uses historical data from key displacement drivers in these three countries. The model is populated with open-source data on conflict, health, environment, food insecurity, number of IDPs, and income.
The model uses this information to predict how many IDPs there will be at a regional level to better inform the wider humanitarian sector. These location-specific forecasts can improve operational responses to support affected individuals.
The model is hosted on a website with background information about the Sahel.